Where the numbers come from
Every year Berkshire publishes a letter to shareholders with a table: the return of Berkshire's shares and of the S&P 500 (with dividends) for every year since 1965. We used the table in the 2025 letter and checked it against FMP market data: for every year since 1981 the difference is under 0.05 points.
The lead, decade by decade
| Decade | Berkshire vs the S&P 500, per year |
|---|---|
| 1965–1974 | about +11 points |
| 1975–1984 | about +27 points |
| 1985–1994 | about +18 points |
| 1995–2004 | about +4 points |
| 2005–2014 | about +2 points |
| 2015–2025 | −1.9 points |
Source: Berkshire Hathaway's 2025 letter to shareholders; Trading Toolbox calculations (study 44).
Buffett himself has said it for years: a huge sum of money is an anchor. When you manage hundreds of billions, small bargains cannot move the result.
Ten-year holding periods
If you had bought Berkshire in any given year and held it for 10 years:
- Starting 1965–1984: Berkshire beat the S&P 500 in all 20 periods.
- Starting 1985–2004: in 19 of 20.
- Starting 2005–2016: in only 4 of 12.
$1,000 from 2005
| Invested at the start of 2005, to the end of 2025 | Value |
|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $8,579 |
| S&P 500 (with dividends) | $8,466 |
Twenty years, almost a tie. From 2015 on, the S&P 500 is ahead: $4,040 vs $3,341.
The famous purchases
- Coca-Cola (bought in 1988): by 2021 its price had risen about 18-fold, roughly as much as the S&P 500's price over the same years (about 19-fold). Both without dividends.
- Apple: the biggest gain in dollars, from about $31bn to $161bn by 2021.
- Losers: IBM (2011–2016, while the S&P 500 doubled), Tesco (a $444m after-tax loss, per the 2014 letter), the four airlines (2016–2020), Kraft Heinz.
- Of the new positions since 2013 that reached 1% of the portfolio, fewer than half beat the S&P 500 while held. Apple made the record.
And if you copy his portfolio?
Large US funds disclose their holdings every quarter (the 13F filing), up to 45 days late. We tested copying Berkshire, Ackman, Burry, Dalio and ARK: the Berkshire copy lagged the S&P 500 by 2–4 points a year in both test periods. Stars regress: ARK made +37.6% a year in the first period and +2.2% in the second.
What the big investors hold now
What this means for you
Buffett is the best investor of his time, and that is exactly why the numbers teach something: even he has not beaten a plain index fund over the last 10 years. For most people his own advice is the practical one: a cheap index fund, held for a long time.
Frequently asked questions
Does Buffett beat the S&P 500?
Over the long run, yes: 19.7% vs 10.5% a year from 1965 to 2025, per Berkshire's letters. But for 2015–2025 Berkshire trailed the S&P 500 by 1.9 points a year.
Why did Buffett's lead shrink?
Size. With several hundred billion dollars, small bargains cannot move the result, and large companies are priced more efficiently. Buffett says so himself in his letters.
Should I copy Buffett's portfolio?
In our test, copying Berkshire from the public 13F filings lagged the S&P 500 by 2–4 points a year in both test periods. The data arrives up to 45 days late.
What did $1,000 in Berkshire from 2005 become?
About $8,579 by the end of 2025, against $8,466 in the S&P 500 with dividends: almost a tie over 20 years.
Sources
- Berkshire Hathaway, letters to shareholders, the table in the 2025 letter; the 2014 letter (Tesco)
- Our tests: studies 14 (copying 13F filings) and 44 (Berkshire 1965–2025) in the Trading Toolbox research log; market data from FMP
This page is educational and not investment advice. Past results do not guarantee future ones.