Why everyone wants to copy Pelosi
Members of the US Congress must disclose their stock trades within 45 days. Apps, funds and channels copy them. The idea sounds logical: politicians know more. We checked whether that shows up in prices.
What we did
- Pelosi: all her stock purchases from 2018 to 2025, 61 trades. Options were counted as buying the stock.
- Two viewpoints: from the day of her trade (what she made) and from the disclosure date (what a follower could make).
- Measure: the return over the 12 months after each purchase, against the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) over the same time.
- All of Congress: every member's purchases and sales, against the equal-weight index.
The result
| 12 months after a purchase, 2018–2025 | vs the S&P 500 |
|---|---|
| Pelosi, from her trade date | about +10 points on average |
| Follower, from the disclosure date | about +7 points on average (median +1.6) |
| Follower, without NVIDIA | about level with the S&P 500; 1.7 points behind the Nasdaq-100 |
Source: Trading Toolbox studies 15 and 24, prices from FMP.
Three things stand out:
- Waiting for the disclosure costs. The follower gets in weeks later and loses 1.7 points per trade on average against Pelosi.
- The average misleads. The follower's median is only +1.6 points: the typical trade is close to the index, and a few big winners pull the average up.
- One stock does all the work. Since 2022 her trades include four NVIDIA buys averaging +96%. The other 18 have a median of −2.3%.
And Congress as a whole?
Members' purchases beat the equal-weight index slightly. But their sales beat it too. If they knew something, the stocks they sell would lag. So the gap comes from a taste for large companies, not from inside information.
Our "Congress buys" portfolio (the 15 stocks bought by the most members) has been tracked live since October 2026 against the S&P 500, with rules published in advance. It is too early to judge. See what they are buying now.
What this means for you
- "Pelosi beats the market" is true for her, not for a follower. You see the trade weeks later.
- The follower's result depends on whether you caught one stock. That is not a method, it is hindsight luck.
- If you want to watch politicians anyway, use it for ideas you check yourself, not as a buy signal.
Frequently asked questions
Does copying Pelosi's trades make money?
Not reliably. A follower buying after the disclosure beat the S&P 500 by about 7 points on average over 12 months per trade (2018–2025), but almost only because of NVIDIA. Without it the follower matched the S&P 500 and trailed the Nasdaq-100.
Does Pelosi really beat the market?
Her purchases beat the S&P 500 by about 10 points on average over the 12 months after each buy (61 trades, 2018–2025). Since 2022 that comes mostly from four NVIDIA purchases; her other 18 trades have a median of −2.3%.
Does copying all of Congress work?
Not in our tests. Members' purchases beat the equal-weight index slightly, but so did their sales. That points to a preference for large companies, not to information.
How late are Congress trades disclosed?
The law allows up to 45 days. In our test, waiting for the disclosure cost a follower 1.7 points per trade on average compared with Pelosi herself.
Sources
- Our tests: studies 15 and 24 in the Trading Toolbox research log (US House and Senate disclosures, prices from FMP, 2018–2025)
- Congress purchases right now, our full track record
This page is educational and not investment advice. Results are historical and do not guarantee future ones.