NIO Inc. (9866.HK) stock analysis

In our weekly check, NIO Inc. is graded D (A to F). Of 22 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 10 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 8.

About NIO Inc.

NIO Inc. is a Consumer Cyclical company (Auto - Manufacturers) based in China, listed on HKSE as 9866.HK.

What our checks show for 9866.HK

Red flags

• Operating profit does not cover the interest bill (-9.1x): interest is paid from cash or new debt.
• Earnings per share fell 38.4% a year over the last 3 years.
• The company is losing money: the net margin is -3.9%.
• The price swings a lot: 50.2% annual volatility. Expect large ups and downs.
• The stock has fallen as much as 87% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• The share count grew by 33.7% in 2 years: each shareholder owns a smaller slice.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is zero or negative: the business does not earn on the money put into it.
• Pay in shares equals 0% of free cash flow: it dilutes shareholders.

Warning signs

• The gross margin fell by 1.5 points, to 17.4%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to shrink about 11% a year.
• Free cash flow is only 0% of revenue.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.

Strengths

• Debt is low: 7.13x equity.
• The net margin rose by 25.4 points over 5 years, to -3.9%.
• Analysts expect revenue to grow about 17.7% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 5.9 points from today's -3.9%.
• Revenue grew 32.1% a year over the last 3 years.
• Actively traded: about 5.2 million shares a day.

Next earnings report: 2026-11-11

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Questions

What grade does NIO Inc. (9866.HK) have?

In our weekly check, NIO Inc. is graded D (A to F). Of 22 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 10 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 8. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of 9866.HK stock?

This week's biggest flags for NIO Inc.: Weak interest cover, Weak EPS growth, Thin margins. In total 12 of 22 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does NIO Inc. do?

NIO Inc. is a Consumer Cyclical company (Auto - Manufacturers) based in China, listed on HKSE as 9866.HK.

When does NIO Inc. report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-11-11. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

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