Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. is graded D (A to F). Of 23 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 8 pass, warnings: 5, red flags: 10.

About Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. is a Real Estate company (REIT - Mortgage) based in the United States, listed on NYSE as ABR.

What our checks show for ABR

Red flags

• Net debt is 15.9x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 4.39). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• Operating profit does not cover the interest bill (1x): interest is paid from cash or new debt.
• The net margin fell by 56.9 points over 5 years, to -5.6%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• The gross margin fell by 4.3 points, to 88.7%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• Analysts expect revenue to shrink about 37.1% a year.
• Earnings per share fell 30.8% a year over the last 3 years.
• The company is losing money: the net margin is -5.6%.
• Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. pays a dividend while losing money: it is funded from reserves or debt.
• The price swings a lot: 64% annual volatility. Expect large ups and downs.
• The stock has fallen as much as 98% from a peak. Would you have held through that?

Warning signs

• Analysts expect earnings per share to shrink about 40% a year.
• A small company (market value $300 million): usually riskier and followed by fewer analysts.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.
• Beta 1.22: the stock usually moves more than the market, both up and down.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 5.5%.

Strengths

• Operating cash flow is 5.99x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 14.7 points from today's -5.6%.
• Revenue grew 21.7% a year over the last 3 years.
• Free cash flow is 33.7% of revenue: cash for dividends, buybacks or growth.
• Actively traded: about 6.8 million shares a day.
• Pay in shares is only 3.7% of free cash flow.

Similar companies

KREF · RWT · BRSP · MFA · PMT · LADR

Questions

What grade does Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) have?

In our weekly check, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. is graded D (A to F). Of 23 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 8 pass, warnings: 5, red flags: 10. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of ABR stock?

This week's biggest flags for Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.: High debt, Weak interest cover, Margins falling. In total 15 of 23 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. do?

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. is a Real Estate company (REIT - Mortgage) based in the United States, listed on NYSE as ABR.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-11-07

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