Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER.SW) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Julius Baer Gruppe AG is graded D (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 11 pass, warnings: 5, red flags: 9.

About Julius Baer Gruppe AG

Julius Baer Gruppe AG is a Financial Services company (Asset Management) based in Switzerland, listed on SIX as BAER.SW.

What our checks show for BAER.SW

Red flags

• Operating profit does not cover the interest bill (0.7x): interest is paid from cash or new debt.
• The net margin fell by 12.5 points over 5 years, to 12.9%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• The gross margin fell by 32.3 points, to 67.7%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• Operating cash flow is only 0.13x net profit: part of the reported profit does not arrive as cash.
• Analysts expect revenue to shrink about 6.2% a year.
• Free cash flow is negative (-2.5% of revenue): the business spends more cash than it brings in.
• The stock has fallen as much as 80% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 1.2%.
• Pay in shares equals 0% of free cash flow: it dilutes shareholders.

Warning signs

• Net debt is 0.8x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 1.51). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• Earnings per share fell 6.6% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit fell 7% a year over the last 3 years.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.
• Thinly traded (about 435 thousand shares a day): buying and selling can move the price.

Strengths

• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 23.8% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 15 points from today's 12.9%.
• The price is 12.2 times earnings (P/E), reasonable for its growth.
• A large company: market value $16.88 billion.

Similar companies

CG · EQH · ARCC · OWL · CRBG · IVZ

Questions

What grade does Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER.SW) have?

In our weekly check, Julius Baer Gruppe AG is graded D (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 11 pass, warnings: 5, red flags: 9. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of BAER.SW stock?

This week's biggest flags for Julius Baer Gruppe AG: Weak interest cover, Margins falling, Gross margin falling. In total 14 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Julius Baer Gruppe AG do?

Julius Baer Gruppe AG is a Financial Services company (Asset Management) based in Switzerland, listed on SIX as BAER.SW.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

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