Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BMPS.MI) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is graded C (A to F). Of 23 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 14 pass, warnings: 2, red flags: 7.

About Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is a Financial Services company (Banks - Regional) based in Italy, listed on MIL as BMPS.MI.

What our checks show for BMPS.MI

Red flags

• Operating cash flow is only 0.44x net profit: part of the reported profit does not arrive as cash.
• Analysts expect revenue to shrink about 1% a year.
• Analysts expect the net margin to shrink by 24 points from today's 44.4%.
• The stock has fallen as much as 100% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• The share count grew by 40.3% in 2 years: each shareholder owns a smaller slice.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 1.7%.

Warning signs

• Analysts expect earnings per share to shrink about 12.4% a year.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.

Strengths

• The net margin rose by 36.4 points over 5 years, to 44.4%.
• The gross margin is 95.4% and has risen by 13 points: pricing power is holding.
• Revenue grew 31.8% a year over the last 3 years.
• Earnings per share grew 89.9% a year over the last 3 years.
• The company keeps 44.4% of its revenue as net profit.
• Free cash flow is 18.1% of revenue: cash for dividends, buybacks or growth.

Next earnings report: 2026-11-06

Similar companies

MTB · HBANL · CFG · FCNCA · CBK.DE · BPE.MI

Questions

What grade does Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BMPS.MI) have?

In our weekly check, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is graded C (A to F). Of 23 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 14 pass, warnings: 2, red flags: 7. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of BMPS.MI stock?

This week's biggest flags for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.: Profits not backed by cash, Weak revenue forecast, Margins expected to shrink. In total 9 of 23 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. do?

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is a Financial Services company (Banks - Regional) based in Italy, listed on MIL as BMPS.MI.

When does Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-11-06. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

Open the full analysis