Gecina S.A. (GFC.PA) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Gecina S.A. is graded D (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 13 pass, warnings: 3, red flags: 9.

About Gecina S.A.

Gecina S.A. is a Real Estate company (REIT - Office) based in France, listed on PAR as GFC.PA.

What our checks show for GFC.PA

Red flags

• Net debt is 12.3x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 0.69). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• The net margin fell by 59.3 points over 5 years, to 52.2%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• The gross margin fell by 3.7 points, to 77.2%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• Analysts expect revenue to shrink about 3.7% a year.
• Free cash flow is negative (-57.2% of revenue): the business spends more cash than it brings in.
• The stock has fallen as much as 81% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Recovering from its deepest fall took about 7.5 years.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 3.5%.
• Pay in shares equals 0% of free cash flow: it dilutes shareholders.

Warning signs

• Revenue grew only 3.6% a year over the last 3 years.
• The dividend takes 81% of profit: little cushion if profit falls.
• Thinly traded (about 201 thousand shares a day): buying and selling can move the price.

Strengths

• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 15.1 points from today's 52.2%.
• Earnings per share grew 38.1% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit grew 38.3% a year over the last 3 years.
• The company keeps 52.2% of its revenue as net profit.
• The price moves calmly: 18.8% annual volatility.

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Questions

What grade does Gecina S.A. (GFC.PA) have?

In our weekly check, Gecina S.A. is graded D (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 13 pass, warnings: 3, red flags: 9. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of GFC.PA stock?

This week's biggest flags for Gecina S.A.: High debt, Margins falling, Gross margin falling. In total 12 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Gecina S.A. do?

Gecina S.A. is a Real Estate company (REIT - Office) based in France, listed on PAR as GFC.PA.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-31

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