GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL.TO) stock analysis

In our weekly check, GFL Environmental Inc. is graded C (A to F). Of 23 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 14 pass, warnings: 3, red flags: 6.

About GFL Environmental Inc.

GFL Environmental Inc. is an Industrials company (Waste Management) based in Canada, listed on TSX as GFL.TO.

What our checks show for GFL.TO

Red flags

• Net debt is 6.6x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 1.06). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• Operating profit does not cover the interest bill (0.6x): interest is paid from cash or new debt.
• Earnings per share grew only 5.7% a year over the last 3 years.
• The company is losing money: the net margin is -4.9%.
• GFL Environmental Inc. pays a dividend while losing money: it is funded from reserves or debt.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 1.4%.

Warning signs

• Revenue grew only 3.2% a year over the last 3 years.
• Free cash flow is only 2.9% of revenue.
• Recovering from its deepest fall took about 2 years.

Strengths

• The net margin rose by 6.9 points over 5 years, to -4.9%.
• The gross margin is 19.5% and has risen by 9.8 points: pricing power is holding.
• Operating cash flow is 3.8x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 19.6% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect revenue to grow about 16% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 9.8 points from today's -4.9%.

Similar companies

CLH · CWST · WCN · RSG · WM

Questions

What grade does GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL.TO) have?

In our weekly check, GFL Environmental Inc. is graded C (A to F). Of 23 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 14 pass, warnings: 3, red flags: 6. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of GFL.TO stock?

This week's biggest flags for GFL Environmental Inc.: High debt, Weak interest cover, Weak EPS growth. In total 9 of 23 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does GFL Environmental Inc. do?

GFL Environmental Inc. is an Industrials company (Waste Management) based in Canada, listed on TSX as GFL.TO.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-31

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