Heineken Holding N.V. (HEIO.AS) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Heineken Holding N.V. is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 13 pass, warnings: 6, red flags: 6.

About Heineken Holding N.V.

Heineken Holding N.V. is a Consumer Defensive company (Beverages - Alcoholic) based in the Netherlands, listed on AMS as HEIO.AS.

What our checks show for HEIO.AS

Red flags

• Net debt is 2.5x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 2.25). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• The net margin fell by 12.8 points over 5 years, to 3.3%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• The net margin is only 3.3%: little room if costs rise.
• The dividend takes 120% of profit: little cushion if profit falls.
• The stock has fallen as much as 60% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Recovering from its deepest fall took about 3.8 years.

Warning signs

• The gross margin fell by 2.5 points, to 35.8%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• Revenue grew only 0% a year over the last 3 years.
• Earnings per share fell 31.6% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit fell 32.1% a year over the last 3 years.
• Thinly traded (about 170 thousand shares a day): buying and selling can move the price.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 9.4%.

Strengths

• Operating cash flow is 5.26x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 28.3% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 2.6 points from today's 3.3%.
• A large company: market value $22.7 billion.
• Beta 0.63: the stock usually moves less than the market.
• Pay in shares is only 0% of free cash flow.

Similar companies

ABEV · DEO · 0291.HK · STZ · RI.PA · CARL-B.CO

Questions

What grade does Heineken Holding N.V. (HEIO.AS) have?

In our weekly check, Heineken Holding N.V. is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 13 pass, warnings: 6, red flags: 6. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of HEIO.AS stock?

This week's biggest flags for Heineken Holding N.V.: High debt, Margins falling, Thin margins. In total 12 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Heineken Holding N.V. do?

Heineken Holding N.V. is a Consumer Defensive company (Beverages - Alcoholic) based in the Netherlands, listed on AMS as HEIO.AS.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

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