Keyera Corp. (KEY.TO) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Keyera Corp. is graded D (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 12 pass, warnings: 6, red flags: 7.

About Keyera Corp.

Keyera Corp. is an Energy company (Oil & Gas Midstream) based in Canada, listed on TSX as KEY.TO.

What our checks show for KEY.TO

Red flags

• Net debt is 7.7x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 1.61). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• The gross margin fell by 6.8 points, to 14.1%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• Free cash flow is negative (-1.2% of revenue): the business spends more cash than it brings in.
• The dividend takes 145% of profit: little cushion if profit falls.
• The stock has fallen as much as 79% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Recovering from its deepest fall took about 5.8 years.
• Pay in shares equals 0% of free cash flow: it dilutes shareholders.

Warning signs

• Operating profit covers interest only 2.3 times: a weak year could make the payments hard.
• The net margin fell by 1.5 points over 5 years, to 5%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• Revenue grew only 0.7% a year over the last 3 years.
• Earnings per share fell 1.4% a year over the last 3 years.
• The net margin is only 5%: little room if costs rise.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 5%.

Strengths

• Operating cash flow is 1.32x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 41.3% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect revenue to grow about 22.6% a year over the next years.

Next earnings report: 2026-11-13

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Questions

What grade does Keyera Corp. (KEY.TO) have?

In our weekly check, Keyera Corp. is graded D (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 12 pass, warnings: 6, red flags: 7. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of KEY.TO stock?

This week's biggest flags for Keyera Corp.: High debt, Gross margin falling, Weak free cash flow. In total 13 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Keyera Corp. do?

Keyera Corp. is an Energy company (Oil & Gas Midstream) based in Canada, listed on TSX as KEY.TO.

When does Keyera Corp. report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-11-13. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

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