PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA.JK) stock analysis

In our weekly check, PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk is graded D (A to F). Of 24 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 11 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 9.

About PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk

PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk is a Basic Materials company (Industrial Materials), listed on JKT as MDKA.JK.

What our checks show for MDKA.JK

Red flags

• Net debt is 2.6x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 2.87). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• Operating profit does not cover the interest bill (0x): interest is paid from cash or new debt.
• The net margin fell by 7.2 points over 5 years, to 2.3%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• The gross margin fell by 9.2 points, to 22.3%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• The net margin is only 2.3%: little room if costs rise.
• Free cash flow is negative (-6.6% of revenue): the business spends more cash than it brings in.
• The price swings a lot: 68% annual volatility. Expect large ups and downs.
• The stock has fallen as much as 82% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Pay in shares equals 0% of free cash flow: it dilutes shareholders.

Warning signs

• Earnings per share fell 2.7% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit fell 1.9% a year over the last 3 years.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 9.7%.

Strengths

• Operating cash flow is 5.91x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 137% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect revenue to grow about 36.6% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 8 points from today's 2.3%.
• Revenue grew 41% a year over the last 3 years.
• Actively traded: about 42.4 million shares a day.

Next earnings report: 2026-12-16

Similar companies

UNTR.JK · 005490.KS · BRPT.JK · 051910.KS · 4063.T · 086520.KQ

Questions

What grade does PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA.JK) have?

In our weekly check, PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk is graded D (A to F). Of 24 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 11 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 9. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of MDKA.JK stock?

This week's biggest flags for PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk: High debt, Weak interest cover, Margins falling. In total 13 of 24 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk do?

PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk is a Basic Materials company (Industrial Materials), listed on JKT as MDKA.JK.

When does PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-12-16. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-31

Open the full analysis