Motiva S.A. (MOTV3.SA) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Motiva S.A. is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 14 pass, warnings: 5, red flags: 6.

About Motiva S.A.

Motiva S.A. is an Industrials company (Industrial - Infrastructure Operations) based in Brazil, listed on SAO as MOTV3.SA.

What our checks show for MOTV3.SA

Red flags

• Net debt is 4x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 2.14). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• Operating profit covers interest only 1.9 times: a weak year could make the payments hard.
• Analysts expect the net margin to shrink by 14.8 points from today's 33.7%.
• Revenue fell 2.1% a year over the last 3 years.
• Free cash flow is negative (-21.6% of revenue): the business spends more cash than it brings in.
• Pay in shares equals 0% of free cash flow: it dilutes shareholders.

Warning signs

• Analysts expect earnings per share to shrink about 22.8% a year.
• Analysts expect only about 0.3% a year of growth in revenue.
• The price swings a lot: 47.7% annual volatility. Expect large ups and downs.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 9.7%.

Strengths

• The net margin rose by 28 points over 5 years, to 33.7%.
• The gross margin is 45.4% and has risen by 7.5 points: pricing power is holding.
• Earnings per share grew 13.7% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit grew 13.7% a year over the last 3 years.
• The company keeps 33.7% of its revenue as net profit.
• The dividend takes 34% of profit: there is a cushion.

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Questions

What grade does Motiva S.A. (MOTV3.SA) have?

In our weekly check, Motiva S.A. is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 14 pass, warnings: 5, red flags: 6. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of MOTV3.SA stock?

This week's biggest flags for Motiva S.A.: High debt, Weak interest cover, Margins expected to shrink. In total 11 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Motiva S.A. do?

Motiva S.A. is an Industrials company (Industrial - Infrastructure Operations) based in Brazil, listed on SAO as MOTV3.SA.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-31

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