Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 14 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 7.

About Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. is a Financial Services company (Asset Management) based in the United States, listed on NYSE as NCDL.

What our checks show for NCDL

Red flags

• Net debt is 17.1x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 1.28). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• Operating profit does not cover the interest bill (0.9x): interest is paid from cash or new debt.
• The net margin fell by 35.6 points over 5 years, to 33.8%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• The gross margin fell by 16.7 points, to 58.3%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• The dividend takes 185% of profit: little cushion if profit falls.
• The share count grew by 50.6% in 2 years: each shareholder owns a smaller slice.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 3.2%.

Warning signs

• A small company (market value $521 million): usually riskier and followed by fewer analysts.
• The stock has fallen as much as 42% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• The stock is still below its previous peak.
• Thinly traded (about 220 thousand shares a day): buying and selling can move the price.

Strengths

• Operating cash flow is 2.41x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 19.1% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 10.3 points from today's 33.8%.
• Revenue grew 43.5% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit grew 39.4% a year over the last 3 years.
• The company keeps 33.8% of its revenue as net profit.

Next earnings report: 2026-11-03

Similar companies

MSIF · SLRC · PFLT · BCSF · MFIC

Questions

What grade does Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) have?

In our weekly check, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 14 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 7. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of NCDL stock?

This week's biggest flags for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.: High debt, Weak interest cover, Margins falling. In total 11 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. do?

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. is a Financial Services company (Asset Management) based in the United States, listed on NYSE as NCDL.

When does Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-11-03. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

Open the full analysis