Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Origin Energy Limited is graded B (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 17 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 4.

About Origin Energy Limited

Origin Energy Limited is an Utilities company (Diversified Utilities) based in Australia, listed on ASX as ORG.AX.

What our checks show for ORG.AX

Red flags

• Analysts expect only about 0% a year of growth in revenue.
• Analysts expect the net margin to shrink by 3.1 points from today's 10.2%.
• Revenue fell 2% a year over the last 3 years.
• The stock has fallen as much as 77% from a peak. Would you have held through that?

Warning signs

• Analysts expect earnings per share to shrink about 9.9% a year.
• The dividend takes 88% of profit: little cushion if profit falls.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 7.4%.

Strengths

• The net margin rose by 20.1 points over 5 years, to 10.2%.
• The gross margin is 13.2% and has risen by 6.3 points: pricing power is holding.
• Operating cash flow is 1.67x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Earnings per share grew 14.7% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit grew 14.3% a year over the last 3 years.
• Free cash flow is 11.2% of revenue: cash for dividends, buybacks or growth.

Similar companies

EDP.LS · BIP · SSE.L · AES · RWE.DE · EOAN.DE

Questions

What grade does Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) have?

In our weekly check, Origin Energy Limited is graded B (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 17 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 4. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of ORG.AX stock?

This week's biggest flags for Origin Energy Limited: Weak revenue forecast, Margins expected to shrink, Weak revenue growth. In total 8 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Origin Energy Limited do?

Origin Energy Limited is an Utilities company (Diversified Utilities) based in Australia, listed on ASX as ORG.AX.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

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