Rumo S.A. (RAIL3.SA) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Rumo S.A. is graded B (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 17 pass, warnings: 3, red flags: 5.

About Rumo S.A.

Rumo S.A. is an Industrials company (Railroads) based in Brazil, listed on SAO as RAIL3.SA.

What our checks show for RAIL3.SA

Red flags

• Net debt is 3.4x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 2.19). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• Operating profit covers interest only 1.8 times: a weak year could make the payments hard.
• Free cash flow is negative (-0.2% of revenue): the business spends more cash than it brings in.
• The stock has fallen as much as 98% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Pay in shares equals 0% of free cash flow: it dilutes shareholders.

Warning signs

• The net margin is only 8.5%: little room if costs rise.
• The price swings a lot: 41.5% annual volatility. Expect large ups and downs.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.

Strengths

• The net margin rose by 6.5 points over 5 years, to 8.5%.
• The gross margin is 45.8% and has risen by 17.8 points: pricing power is holding.
• Operating cash flow is 5.11x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 48.1% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 11.5 points from today's 8.5%.
• Earnings per share grew 33.1% a year over the last 3 years.

Next earnings report: 2026-11-12

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Questions

What grade does Rumo S.A. (RAIL3.SA) have?

In our weekly check, Rumo S.A. is graded B (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 17 pass, warnings: 3, red flags: 5. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of RAIL3.SA stock?

This week's biggest flags for Rumo S.A.: High debt, Weak interest cover, Weak free cash flow. In total 8 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Rumo S.A. do?

Rumo S.A. is an Industrials company (Railroads) based in Brazil, listed on SAO as RAIL3.SA.

When does Rumo S.A. report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-11-12. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-31

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