Rio Tinto Group (RIO.AX) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Rio Tinto Group is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 16 pass, warnings: 5, red flags: 4.

About Rio Tinto Group

Rio Tinto Group is a Basic Materials company (Industrial Materials) based in Australia, listed on ASX as RIO.AX.

What our checks show for RIO.AX

Red flags

• The net margin fell by 15.9 points over 5 years, to 17.3%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• The gross margin fell by 22.3 points, to 27.1%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• The stock has fallen as much as 79% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Recovering from its deepest fall took about 11.9 years.

Warning signs

• Analysts expect only about 3.4% a year of growth in revenue.
• Revenue grew only 2.4% a year over the last 3 years.
• Earnings per share fell 6.1% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit fell 6% a year over the last 3 years.
• Free cash flow covers the dividend only 0.8 times.

Strengths

• Net debt is only 0.7x a year of EBITDA: the balance sheet has room.
• Operating profit covers interest 12.9 times over.
• Operating cash flow is 1.72x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 3.7 points from today's 17.3%.
• The price is 11.2 times earnings (P/E), reasonable for its growth.
• A large company: market value $149 billion.

Similar companies

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Questions

What grade does Rio Tinto Group (RIO.AX) have?

In our weekly check, Rio Tinto Group is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 16 pass, warnings: 5, red flags: 4. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of RIO.AX stock?

This week's biggest flags for Rio Tinto Group: Margins falling, Gross margin falling, Deep past fall. In total 9 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Rio Tinto Group do?

Rio Tinto Group is a Basic Materials company (Industrial Materials) based in Australia, listed on ASX as RIO.AX.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

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