TUI AG (TUI1.DE) stock analysis

In our weekly check, TUI AG is graded C (A to F). Of 24 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 13 pass, warnings: 7, red flags: 4.

About TUI AG

TUI AG is a Consumer Cyclical company (Travel Services) based in Germany, listed on XETRA as TUI1.DE.

What our checks show for TUI1.DE

Red flags

• Net debt is 1.3x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 2.51). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• The net margin is only 2.5%: little room if costs rise.
• The stock has fallen as much as 92% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• The share count grew by 24.9% in 2 years: each shareholder owns a smaller slice.

Warning signs

• Operating profit covers interest only 2.5 times: a weak year could make the payments hard.
• Analysts expect only about 1.9% a year of growth in revenue.
• Free cash flow is only 1.7% of revenue.
• The price swings a lot: 38.1% annual volatility. Expect large ups and downs.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.
• Beta 1.4: the stock usually moves more than the market, both up and down.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 9.8%.

Strengths

• The net margin rose by 55 points over 5 years, to 2.5%.
• The gross margin is 8.2% and has risen by 34.1 points: pricing power is holding.
• Operating cash flow is 2.08x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 15.4% a year over the next years.
• Earnings per share grew 19.4% a year over the last 3 years.
• The dividend takes 8% of profit: there is a cushion.

Next earnings report: 2026-12-09

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Questions

What grade does TUI AG (TUI1.DE) have?

In our weekly check, TUI AG is graded C (A to F). Of 24 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 13 pass, warnings: 7, red flags: 4. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of TUI1.DE stock?

This week's biggest flags for TUI AG: High debt, Thin margins, Deep past fall. In total 11 of 24 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does TUI AG do?

TUI AG is a Consumer Cyclical company (Travel Services) based in Germany, listed on XETRA as TUI1.DE.

When does TUI AG report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-12-09. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-31

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