Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGPA3.SA) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Ultrapar Participações S.A. is graded B (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 16 pass, warnings: 6, red flags: 3.

About Ultrapar Participações S.A.

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is an Energy company (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing) based in Brazil, listed on SAO as UGPA3.SA.

What our checks show for UGPA3.SA

Red flags

• The net margin is only 2.3%: little room if costs rise.
• The stock has fallen as much as 73% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Recovering from its deepest fall took about 6.3 years.

Warning signs

• Net debt is 1.8x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 1.09). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• Operating profit covers interest only 2.6 times: a weak year could make the payments hard.
• Analysts expect only about 2.3% a year of growth in revenue.
• Analysts expect the net margin to shrink by 0.1 points from today's 2.3%.
• Revenue grew only 2.2% a year over the last 3 years.
• Free cash flow is only 4.1% of revenue.

Strengths

• The net margin rose by 1.5 points over 5 years, to 2.3%.
• The gross margin is 8.4% and has risen by 3.9 points: pricing power is holding.
• Operating cash flow is 2.36x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Earnings per share grew 25% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit grew 24.3% a year over the last 3 years.
• The dividend takes 49% of profit: there is a cushion.

Next earnings report: 2026-11-11

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PBF · CVI · DK · PARR · DINO

Questions

What grade does Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGPA3.SA) have?

In our weekly check, Ultrapar Participações S.A. is graded B (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 16 pass, warnings: 6, red flags: 3. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of UGPA3.SA stock?

This week's biggest flags for Ultrapar Participações S.A.: Thin margins, Deep past fall, Slow recovery after falls. In total 9 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Ultrapar Participações S.A. do?

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is an Energy company (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing) based in Brazil, listed on SAO as UGPA3.SA.

When does Ultrapar Participações S.A. report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-11-11. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

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