UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM.HE) stock analysis

In our weekly check, UPM-Kymmene Oyj is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 14 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 7.

About UPM-Kymmene Oyj

UPM-Kymmene Oyj is a Basic Materials company (Paper, Lumber & Forest Products) based in Finland, listed on HEL as UPM.HE.

What our checks show for UPM.HE

Red flags

• The net margin fell by 6.5 points over 5 years, to 6.6%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• The gross margin fell by 29.1 points, to 5.4%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• Revenue fell 6.9% a year over the last 3 years.
• The dividend takes 127% of profit: little cushion if profit falls.
• The stock has fallen as much as 79% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Recovering from its deepest fall took about 7.4 years.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 3.9%.

Warning signs

• Analysts expect only about 1.6% a year of growth in revenue.
• Earnings per share fell 25.3% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit fell 25.7% a year over the last 3 years.
• The net margin is only 6.6%: little room if costs rise.

Strengths

• Operating cash flow is 1.86x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 23.7% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 3.9 points from today's 6.6%.
• A large company: market value $14.43 billion.
• Beta 0.23: the stock usually moves less than the market.
• Pay in shares is only 0% of free cash flow.

Next earnings report: 2026-10-28

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Questions

What grade does UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM.HE) have?

In our weekly check, UPM-Kymmene Oyj is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 14 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 7. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of UPM.HE stock?

This week's biggest flags for UPM-Kymmene Oyj: Margins falling, Gross margin falling, Weak revenue growth. In total 11 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does UPM-Kymmene Oyj do?

UPM-Kymmene Oyj is a Basic Materials company (Paper, Lumber & Forest Products) based in Finland, listed on HEL as UPM.HE.

When does UPM-Kymmene Oyj report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-10-28. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

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