Vale S.A. (VALE3.SA) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Vale S.A. is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 15 pass, warnings: 3, red flags: 7.

About Vale S.A.

Vale S.A. is a Basic Materials company (Industrial Materials) based in Brazil, listed on SAO as VALE3.SA.

What our checks show for VALE3.SA

Red flags

• The net margin fell by 35.9 points over 5 years, to 5.2%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• The gross margin fell by 25.9 points, to 34.2%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• Analysts expect revenue to shrink about 0.4% a year.
• Revenue fell 2% a year over the last 3 years.
• The dividend takes 203% of profit: little cushion if profit falls.
• The stock has fallen as much as 88% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Recovering from its deepest fall took about 4.6 years.

Warning signs

• Earnings per share fell 50.2% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit fell 51.4% a year over the last 3 years.
• The net margin is only 5.2%: little room if costs rise.

Strengths

• Operating cash flow is 4.53x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 62.8% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 12.5 points from today's 5.2%.
• A large company: market value $53.01 billion.
• Beta 0.7: the stock usually moves less than the market.
• Actively traded: about 22.5 million shares a day.

Next earnings report: 2026-10-29

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RIO · BHP · MP

Questions

What grade does Vale S.A. (VALE3.SA) have?

In our weekly check, Vale S.A. is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 15 pass, warnings: 3, red flags: 7. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of VALE3.SA stock?

This week's biggest flags for Vale S.A.: Margins falling, Gross margin falling, Weak revenue forecast. In total 10 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Vale S.A. do?

Vale S.A. is a Basic Materials company (Industrial Materials) based in Brazil, listed on SAO as VALE3.SA.

When does Vale S.A. report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-10-29. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-24

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