Vicinity Centres (VCX.AX) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Vicinity Centres is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 13 pass, warnings: 7, red flags: 5.

About Vicinity Centres

Vicinity Centres is a Real Estate company (REIT - Retail) based in Australia, listed on ASX as VCX.AX.

What our checks show for VCX.AX

Red flags

• Operating cash flow is only 0.48x net profit: part of the reported profit does not arrive as cash.
• Analysts expect revenue to shrink about 5.4% a year.
• Analysts expect the net margin to shrink by 33 points from today's 102%.
• The stock has fallen as much as 73% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 4.1%.

Warning signs

• Net debt is 3x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 0.41). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• Operating profit covers interest only 2.2 times: a weak year could make the payments hard.
• The gross margin fell by 1.3 points, to 70.7%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to shrink about 15.8% a year.
• Revenue grew only 3.5% a year over the last 3 years.
• Free cash flow covers the dividend only 0.5 times.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.

Strengths

• Earnings per share grew 71.4% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit grew 72.4% a year over the last 3 years.
• The company keeps 102% of its revenue as net profit.
• Free cash flow is 17.7% of revenue: cash for dividends, buybacks or growth.
• The price is 7.8 times earnings (P/E), reasonable for its growth.
• Actively traded: about 14.1 million shares a day.

Similar companies

URW.PA · FRT · REG · BRX · ADC · KIM

Questions

What grade does Vicinity Centres (VCX.AX) have?

In our weekly check, Vicinity Centres is graded C (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 13 pass, warnings: 7, red flags: 5. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of VCX.AX stock?

This week's biggest flags for Vicinity Centres: Profits not backed by cash, Weak revenue forecast, Margins expected to shrink. In total 12 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Vicinity Centres do?

Vicinity Centres is a Real Estate company (REIT - Retail) based in Australia, listed on ASX as VCX.AX.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-31

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