Ampol Limited (ALD.AX) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Ampol Limited is graded D (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 12 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 9.

About Ampol Limited

Ampol Limited is an Energy company (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing) based in Australia, listed on ASX as ALD.AX.

What our checks show for ALD.AX

Red flags

• Net debt is 5.5x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 1.27). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• Operating profit does not cover the interest bill (0.6x): interest is paid from cash or new debt.
• The net margin fell by 2.4 points over 5 years, to 0.3%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• The gross margin fell by 2.9 points, to 6.8%: costs are rising faster than prices.
• Revenue fell 6.8% a year over the last 3 years.
• The net margin is only 0.3%: little room if costs rise.
• The dividend takes 185% of profit: little cushion if profit falls.
• The stock has fallen as much as 78% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• Recovering from its deepest fall took about 5.6 years.

Warning signs

• Analysts expect only about 3% a year of growth in revenue.
• Earnings per share fell 52.9% a year over the last 3 years.
• Net profit fell 53% a year over the last 3 years.
• Free cash flow is only 0.2% of revenue.

Strengths

• Operating cash flow is 9.13x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 95.7% a year over the next years.
• The price is 6.2 times earnings (P/E), reasonable for its growth.
• Beta 0.1: the stock usually moves less than the market.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is 23.8%: the business earns well on the money put into it.
• Pay in shares is only 0% of free cash flow.

Similar companies

CSAN3.SA · PBF · MOH.AT · QFLS.QA · UGP · CVI

Questions

What grade does Ampol Limited (ALD.AX) have?

In our weekly check, Ampol Limited is graded D (A to F). Of 25 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 12 pass, warnings: 4, red flags: 9. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of ALD.AX stock?

This week's biggest flags for Ampol Limited: High debt, Weak interest cover, Margins falling. In total 13 of 25 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Ampol Limited do?

Ampol Limited is an Energy company (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing) based in Australia, listed on ASX as ALD.AX.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-31

Open the full analysis