Cosan S.A. (CSAN3.SA) stock analysis

In our weekly check, Cosan S.A. is graded D (A to F). Of 23 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 7 pass, warnings: 6, red flags: 10.

About Cosan S.A.

Cosan S.A. is an Energy company (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing) based in Brazil, listed on SAO as CSAN3.SA.

What our checks show for CSAN3.SA

Red flags

• Net debt is 4x a year of EBITDA (debt/equity 12.26). That limits room in a downturn and raises refinancing risk.
• The net margin fell by 47.5 points over 5 years, to -22.2%: the company keeps less of each sale as profit.
• Weak EPS growth
• The company is losing money: the net margin is -22.2%.
• Free cash flow is negative (-6.7% of revenue): the business spends more cash than it brings in.
• Cosan S.A. pays a dividend while losing money: it is funded from reserves or debt.
• The price swings a lot: 102% annual volatility. Expect large ups and downs.
• The stock has fallen as much as 92% from a peak. Would you have held through that?
• The share count grew by 33.8% in 2 years: each shareholder owns a smaller slice.
• Pay in shares equals 0% of free cash flow: it dilutes shareholders.

Warning signs

• Operating profit covers interest only 2.2 times: a weak year could make the payments hard.
• Analysts expect earnings per share to shrink about 30.6% a year.
• Revenue grew only 0.6% a year over the last 3 years.
• A small company (market value $1.69 billion): usually riskier and followed by fewer analysts.
• The stock is still below its previous peak.
• Return on capital (ROCE) is only 9.5%.

Strengths

• The gross margin is 34.5% and has risen by 11.2 points: pricing power is holding.
• Operating cash flow is 0.67x net profit: the profit arrives as real cash.
• Analysts expect revenue to grow about 16.5% a year over the next years.
• Analysts expect the net margin to improve by 26.9 points from today's -22.2%.
• Beta 0.51: the stock usually moves less than the market.
• Actively traded: about 42.3 million shares a day.

Next earnings report: 2026-11-13

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Questions

What grade does Cosan S.A. (CSAN3.SA) have?

In our weekly check, Cosan S.A. is graded D (A to F). Of 23 checks on debt, profit, cash flow and trend: 7 pass, warnings: 6, red flags: 10. The grade is a risk check, not a buy or sell recommendation.

What are the main risks of CSAN3.SA stock?

This week's biggest flags for Cosan S.A.: High debt, Margins falling, Weak EPS growth. In total 16 of 23 checks show a warning or a red flag.

What does Cosan S.A. do?

Cosan S.A. is an Energy company (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing) based in Brazil, listed on SAO as CSAN3.SA.

When does Cosan S.A. report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected on 2026-11-13. We re-run the checks every week, so the grade can change after it.

The grade is a risk check, not a price forecast, and not investment advice. In our 10-year test (S&P 500, 2016-2026), stocks we graded A or B fell more than 30% 2-3 times less often than D or F, without a lower average return.

Updated 2026-10-31

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